Democrats seek to weaken the Republican lead in state legislatures

While races for Congress or governors' mansions may dominate the airwaves, some of the most competitive and significant contests are farther down the ballot.

More than 6,100 seats are up for election in state legislatures, which make most of the laws on education, taxes, reproductive rights, crime and social media access, among other things.

"The fact of the matter is the day in, day out basis, state governments, state lawmakers, state governors have a greater impact on our everyday lives than what takes place in Washington D.C.," said John Kennedy, a political science professor at West Chester University in Pennsylvania.

Both parties are sizing up their prospects

Committees for both national parties are picking their races to promote, with Democrats trying to seize on the anti-incumbent mood and low popularity of President Trump.

"By taking advantage of this once-in-a-generation opportunity and environment to build power, we can capture new majorities," said the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee in listing its target districts around the country.

The Republican State Leadership Committee acknowledged in an April strategy memo that 2026 poses, "a political environment that is likely to be one of the most challenging for state Republicans in recent years." It said it's taking a "defensive-first posture" to hold onto seats already held by the GOP.

That would give some Democratic governors greater power to pass their policy priorities or let Democrats block GOP initiatives.

The elections for Pennsylvania's divided legislature highlight the stakes

For example, in Arizona Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate and a six-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a chance to take one or both chambers. If they take both, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, if she wins re-election, would have an easier time implementing blocked efforts, such as rolling back school vouchers and appointing agency leaders.

In other states, Democrats are simply looking to reduce Republican power or break the supermajorities that prevent Democratic governors from vetoing their bills, like in North Carolina and Kansas (if Democrats hold the governor's office there).

The potential for a party shift may be the most pronounced in Pennsylvania, where Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is in a constant policy battle with a split legislature where Democrats hold a slim majority in the state House but Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the Senate.

Democrats have not won a trifecta – full control of the state's executive and legislative branches – in more than 30 years. It could come down to the results of a few close state Senate races in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The incumbent Shapiro, running for re-election, is already making a list of what he hopes to accomplish "in the first 30 days" if that happens.

"We're going to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour," he said at a campaign rally. "I'll tell you what else we're going to do – we will codify abortion rights into law in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I'll tell you what else we're going to do – we're going to build more affordable housing and take on those utility companies that keep jacking up our rates here in Pennsylvania."

While abortion is legal in Pennsylvania, Democrats want to reduce restrictions and add language that would make it clearer and less subject to judicial interpretation. Republican lawmakers have blocked those moves.

Republican candidate says Shapiro should work more across the aisle

"Part of his whole image … has been he's someone who gets things done," he said. "And so I suspect if they have the opportunity, there's going to be nothing short of a very ambitious agenda."

"The governor has consistently said … he can't do anything because he has a divided legislature," she said during their only public debate. "Well, that's not what real leadership is. Real leadership -- they call the leaders to the table, and you negotiate."

The winners could use redistricting to reinforce their gains

In other states, Democrats are looking to create a bulwark against the ability of Republican governors to push through legislation. In New Hampshire, they hope to win a majority in the 400-member state House of Representatives, thereby providing a check on Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who's running for re-election.

If Democrats gain ground, it will counter a successful years-long strategy by the GOP. Kennedy explained that the shift toward Republican-held chambers stems from the 2010 midterm cycle, when they made sweeping gains in state legislatures. That gave Republicans the power to solidify their hold through redistricting.

Carmen Russell-Sluchansky covers politics for WHYY.